A Pessimistic World View (ha!)
Entropy shapes psychology
There is an infinite number of ways something can go bad, and just a small number of ways something can go good. This is pretty much independent on the context and on how we define “good” and “bad” (without twisting the meaning of those words). For example, in physics this concept is called entropy (and it’s always increasing). In biology, there’s an infinite number of ways molecules in your body can be arranged so that you’re dead, and just a small number of ways that make you alive (and that’s only temporary - before and after your life, those molecules were arranged so that you’re not alive). It’s the same in technology: there’s an infinite number of ways a device can be broken, but usually just one (1) way it’s assembled to work correctly. In society, it’s far easier to destroy something that to create something: bullets and bombs are far cheaper than people and buildings.
I think this universal fact is the reason behind both “scarcity” and “enshittification,” but via a corollary: it takes a huge amount of shit to produce a small amount of good.
This post was inspired by a chart that’s currently doing the rounds in my social media bubbles:
The US tech sector vastly outweighs the EU tech sector, which is also visible by looking at the EU trade deficit in digital services:
This means that the EU is supplementing its income from the domestic tech sector by non-compliance fines issued to US companies. Just to be clear - as bad and annoying as EU compliance tends to be, the fines are usually well deserved - what the big US tech is doing is often monstruous. But locally - looks like the EU should do better in developing its tech sector. It has been more than a year since the Draghi report, and nothing significant has happened. There’s not even an EU-INC.
But circling back to the main point: is it “good” that the US tech sector is such a juggernaut? This is one time the word “good” carries a lot of load. Good by what standards?
Is the life of American citizens (on average) better for having the top 5 tech companies in the world being American companies?
Not only are those in the top 5, they are basically dwarfing the rest of the market. NVidia is currently worth more than 7 times more than Samsung. The first EU company on that list is ASML from Netherlands (at the 13th place), the company that produces machines that produce integrated circuits. The first Chinese company is Alibaba, on the 17th place.
Ok, let’s say Apple (just to use an example) has made the world a better place by producing (and inspiring) electronic devices that are high quality and easy to use. Sure, but then again - what does this mean for the average quality of life of the citizens of the USA, or even anywhere on Earth? Apple famously has the largest corporate currency reserve (aka “cash on hand”) ever, fluctuating between $55 and $100 billion, and about $360 billion in total assets, but still lagging behind Elon Musk, with estimated $713 billion in total assets. What they do to improve the average quality of life for “normal” people?
Pretty much nothing.
But,
They have made life increasingly better for an increasingly smaller subset of people.
I think the ultimate reason is deeply rooted in our evolution-driven brains being under long-term PTSP from the physical reality of scarcity, but it really looks like it takes a ginormous amount of effort for a small increment of quality of life overall across the planet, and that life is not going to get better for the majority until the minority has “had their fill”.
Scarcity is driven by entropy. Enshittification is driven by scarcity.
“The future is already here, just not evenly distributed” is such a damning statement. We’re in a constant (rat) race between having the gains in productivity trickle down into gains in quality of life, and the enshittification eating it all away.